America Renewed

Wow. What a day to be a parent in America. I have a ten month old son, who will grow up only knowing a world where this is possible, where we can collectively author our better futures. Last night's dominant performance by President-Elect Obama shattered the blue-state/red-state myth as he promised he would four years ago. We are a purple nation today. Greeting Obama in Washington will be a substantial majority in both houses of Congress. The Republican junta of 1994 is now officially over, as is the conservative movement of 1964/1980, driven into the gutter by Karl Rove and Dick Cheney. What the Republican Party will do to rebuild is scarcely my first concern this morning! I am thinking about these things:

1. This Democratic majority bears no resemblance to the one that Bill Clinton enjoyed in 1992. The bulk of those Senators and Congressmen were fixtures who owed little or nothing to the new President. This caucus knows the reality of their President's coattails. Also, I firmly believe there is a real desire to accomplish without overreaching, and that matters.

2. Executive Orders. Wiretapping is over. Torture is over. On January 21 (day one!) much of the machinery of evil of the Bush/Cheney years can be dragged out into the yard and left on the curb. I suspect the shredders have been operating for some time now throughout Washington, and unlike many of my moderate to liberal friends, prosecuting Bush officials is not something I'm in a froth over. If we have clear evidence of some wrongdoing it should be punished, but I would hate to see the energy and momentum of this shiny new era tarnished by a partisan with hunt that would immediately divide America again.

3. Health Care. We have a real chance to fix it now.

4. Foreign Policy. Iraq will now have to stand up. Afghanistan, get ready, because we're about to get focused on the real deal.

5. Financial Crisis. This is likely what will keep P-E Obama up nights between now and Jan 20, and beyond for some time. Unlike the current administration, I am sure he has and will have the best minds in the country working on this, and with an eye toward all Americans, not just Fortune 100 CEOs.

6. As an aside: how good has the quality polling industry become in this country? The national race was called very accurately, from the overall number to the state numbers. Oh, and that Bradley effect so cherished by the hate-talk radio set and so feared by Democrats? Let's put that one next to the Curse of the Bambino, shall we?

7. Cabinet. We can turn our attention to a second New Frontier, staffing Washington with the best and the brightest to tackle the issues of America and the world. We don't have to assuage electoral bruises or repay Daddy's henchmen.

Ladies and Gentlemen, government is about to become adult again.

Chill Out

A message to all Democrats, Independents and Obama-hopeful Republicans - relax. I haven't seen collective angst this high since the last four games of the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees. There is an anxious sense among the legion of Obama supporters that somehow a referee will throw a flag on this thing and take it away. How?

The Bradley Effect

This is a once little-known axiom of politics that says people will tell a pollster they're voting for the black fella and then pull a switcheroo in the booth because they're really a Klansman. Study after study has shown that if there ever was such a thing as a Bradley Effect, it is long gone. Consider as exhibit one that Obama outperformed his polling in all but three of the Democratic primaries. If anything, I suspect a reverse effect in this race, where people can't bring themselves to tell someone they're voting for Obama, but in the privacy of the booth vote their interests.

Democratic Overconfidence

Yeah, that's like the old baseball saw they've got too much pitching. Never happen.

Low Turnout

Have you seen the early voting numbers?

Voting Machine Irregularities

OK, this is for the tin-foil hat set. What Dean and Obama have done with the 50-state strategy is build up enough of an electoral vote cushion that shenanigans in Ohio or Florida can't steal this thing. The apparatus of elections are now controlled by Dems in these states, with governorships and secretaries of state under control. Also, if Obama goes into Tuesday with RCP polling numbers anywhere like what they are now and somehow voting data is 8-10% off that in multiple states, there's going to be some 'splainin' to do.

OMG!! Pennsylvania!!

Yeah, Obama's PA lead is down from double digits to 7.5%. That's what happens when every ounce of GOP resources are poured into one state. Suppose the sky falls and McCain wins here? And the dam breaks and McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, South Dakota, Arizona, Montana and North Dakota? Obama still gets to 270. Remember, even in the bizzaro no-PA world for the Democrats, they still just need to hold the other Kerry states (none of which are polling under 10% leads), then win Colorado (+6.2%), Nevada (+6.5%), Virginia (+6%), New Mexico (+7.3%) and Iowa (+10.6%).

Kerry/Edwards and Gore/Whasisname were ahead like this too!!

No, they weren't.

So chill out. The best-organized, best-funded Democratic national campaign in history is underway against the worst-run, most toxic Republican campaign in history. If we can't win this one going away, then time to open a vineyard north of Christchurch on the south island of New Zealand and write romance novels. I for one will keep my day job.