Chill Out

A message to all Democrats, Independents and Obama-hopeful Republicans - relax. I haven't seen collective angst this high since the last four games of the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees. There is an anxious sense among the legion of Obama supporters that somehow a referee will throw a flag on this thing and take it away. How?

The Bradley Effect

This is a once little-known axiom of politics that says people will tell a pollster they're voting for the black fella and then pull a switcheroo in the booth because they're really a Klansman. Study after study has shown that if there ever was such a thing as a Bradley Effect, it is long gone. Consider as exhibit one that Obama outperformed his polling in all but three of the Democratic primaries. If anything, I suspect a reverse effect in this race, where people can't bring themselves to tell someone they're voting for Obama, but in the privacy of the booth vote their interests.

Democratic Overconfidence

Yeah, that's like the old baseball saw they've got too much pitching. Never happen.

Low Turnout

Have you seen the early voting numbers?

Voting Machine Irregularities

OK, this is for the tin-foil hat set. What Dean and Obama have done with the 50-state strategy is build up enough of an electoral vote cushion that shenanigans in Ohio or Florida can't steal this thing. The apparatus of elections are now controlled by Dems in these states, with governorships and secretaries of state under control. Also, if Obama goes into Tuesday with RCP polling numbers anywhere like what they are now and somehow voting data is 8-10% off that in multiple states, there's going to be some 'splainin' to do.

OMG!! Pennsylvania!!

Yeah, Obama's PA lead is down from double digits to 7.5%. That's what happens when every ounce of GOP resources are poured into one state. Suppose the sky falls and McCain wins here? And the dam breaks and McCain wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, South Dakota, Arizona, Montana and North Dakota? Obama still gets to 270. Remember, even in the bizzaro no-PA world for the Democrats, they still just need to hold the other Kerry states (none of which are polling under 10% leads), then win Colorado (+6.2%), Nevada (+6.5%), Virginia (+6%), New Mexico (+7.3%) and Iowa (+10.6%).

Kerry/Edwards and Gore/Whasisname were ahead like this too!!

No, they weren't.

So chill out. The best-organized, best-funded Democratic national campaign in history is underway against the worst-run, most toxic Republican campaign in history. If we can't win this one going away, then time to open a vineyard north of Christchurch on the south island of New Zealand and write romance novels. I for one will keep my day job.