2012?

One of the first conversations after any SuperBowl or World Series is...can they repeat? Our society is in such a hurry that we never savor moments but rather always look ahead to the next big thing. I guarantee that no matter who wins the election November 4, the November 5 headline news will be who the contenders are for the challengers in 2012. In this Atwater/Rove era of the perpetual campaign, there is no honeymoon for the elected official. Even before being sworn in, they are targeted for destruction by the opposition. For evidence, see Carol-Shea Porter in the First Congressional District in NH. Mere moments after her election in the 2006 Democratic landslide midterms, the half-truth character assasinations began in the local papers and John Stephens and Jeb Bradley were elbowing for 2008 position.

That being said, some speculation. If McCain wins, which is seeming increasingly unlikely as Obama widens his electoral lead, there's little doubt who would headline the Democratic field. Hillary Clinton's "I Told You So" Express would crank into high gear before Veterans' Day. Other Democratic challengers might include Mark Warner of Virginia, given a successful Senate run this year. Evan Bayh, this generations Hamletesque Mario Cuomo, might finally be able to raise enough money to compete. Other women? Claire McCaskill of MO and Kathleen Sebelius lack the charisma, and would be boxed out of the Emily's List/NARAL/NOW bucks by the Hillary behemoth. Joe Biden would be tainted by the 2008 choke, as would Obama, even if the loss is amazingly narrow. Obviously John Edwards has "slept" his way out of any future contention, and I don't see any more enthusiasm for Bill Richardson or Chris Dodd than we saw this cycle.

The far more likely scenario is an Obama/Biden win, which puts the onus on the Republicans to find a standard bearer for 2008. Given that their current nominee makes every effort to repudiate the party that he supposedly leads, some soul-searching may be in order for the GOP. Obviously McCain is on his last shot, and Sarah Palin has demonstrated her abject lack of qualifications for national office. The obvious choice would be Mitt Romney, which would please the Wall Street Republicans, though who knows what the next four years might bring in the nation's economic condition. Giuliani and Thompson are clearly not serious contenders, and from the 2008 crop only Huckabee could mount a meaningful run. His candidacy would depend on the continued vitality of the fundamentalist evangelical wing of the GOP, which the way things are going, might be their last bastion of strength. There are of course some young risers in the party, including Bobby Jindal of LA and Tim Pawlenty of MN, either of whom I am sure the GOP elites would much rather see debating Joe Biden this week.

The other scenario of interest is a McCain victory that results in a single term, either through his untimely death or advanced age by 2012. That would likely result in a Hillary-Romney clash that would make this election look like a school play.