Death of "The Bradley Effect"

If the McCain campaign is counting on "The Bradley Effect" to erode Obama's growing polling lead come voting day, there is ample evidence to suggest that is a red herring. A paper by Dan Hopkins at Harvard is a great read on how underperformance by blacks as compared to their pre-vote polling has largely vanished.

The numbers just keep getting better for Obama/Biden. North Carolina is now a very possible Democratic pickup in November along with Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. Nevada, Ohio, Florida, even Missouri and Indiana are looking within striking distance. Increasingly, the question is whether this will be a close win or a blowout for the Obama forces. Still, with five weeks to go there is always the chance of an "October Surprise" that could resuscitate McCain's chances: an invasion of Iran, for instance, or a major terrorist attack in Europe or on US soil. A capture of bin Laden, anyone?