Consider this. Not only is Obama leading in all significant national polls, with a widening spread (more than 3% according to RCP), but the electoral college is beginning to swing decisively.
According to state-by-state polling, Obama looks strong to hold onto all of the Kerry 2004 states. In other words, all of John Kerry's 252 EVs look safe for Obama/Biden. Not only that, according to RCP's compilations of polling, there are few Kerry 2004 states in which Obama is faring more poorly than Kerry did 4 years ago. Of states that might conceivably be in play, only in Minnesota (from +3.5% in 2004 to +2.8% in 2008 polling) and Washington state (from +8.2% in 2004 to +6.0% in 2008 polling).
Let's look at states that voted Bush in 2004 that are now considered safe Obama 2008:
Iowa, 7 EV, from Bush +0.7% to Obama +9.4%
Colorado, 9 EV, from Bush +4.7% to Obama +5.4%
New Mexico, 5 EV, from Bush +0.7% to Obama +6.0%
Just with those 21 additional votes, Obama gets to 273 and the win.
But what others are within striking distance according to current polling? How about:
Ohio, 20 EV, from Bush +2.1% to McCain +1.6%
Florida, 27 EV, from Bush +5.0% to McCain +2.1%
Nevada, 5 EV, from Bush Bush + 2.6% to McCain + 1.7%
Virginia, 13 EV, from Bush +8.2% to McCain +0.8%
Indiana, 11 EV, from Bush +20.7% to McCain +2.3%
North Carolina, 15 EV, from Bush 12.4% to McCain + 4.2%
Missouri, 11 EV, from Bush 7.2% to McCain +4.7%
I think NC and MO are a stretch, but some of the shifts in the above states are staggering. An 18% swing in Indiana? More than 7% in VA? These are national dividends from the Dean 50-state strategy and the collapse of the Bush years, and the payoff will be both in the Presidential race as well as downticket, where Democrats are challenging in states and districts where they have not done so for years. It is this downticket success, as well as the shifts by states like Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Indiana that give 2008 a chance to be a realigning election like 1932 or 1860.
According to state-by-state polling, Obama looks strong to hold onto all of the Kerry 2004 states. In other words, all of John Kerry's 252 EVs look safe for Obama/Biden. Not only that, according to RCP's compilations of polling, there are few Kerry 2004 states in which Obama is faring more poorly than Kerry did 4 years ago. Of states that might conceivably be in play, only in Minnesota (from +3.5% in 2004 to +2.8% in 2008 polling) and Washington state (from +8.2% in 2004 to +6.0% in 2008 polling).
Let's look at states that voted Bush in 2004 that are now considered safe Obama 2008:
Iowa, 7 EV, from Bush +0.7% to Obama +9.4%
Colorado, 9 EV, from Bush +4.7% to Obama +5.4%
New Mexico, 5 EV, from Bush +0.7% to Obama +6.0%
Just with those 21 additional votes, Obama gets to 273 and the win.
But what others are within striking distance according to current polling? How about:
Ohio, 20 EV, from Bush +2.1% to McCain +1.6%
Florida, 27 EV, from Bush +5.0% to McCain +2.1%
Nevada, 5 EV, from Bush Bush + 2.6% to McCain + 1.7%
Virginia, 13 EV, from Bush +8.2% to McCain +0.8%
Indiana, 11 EV, from Bush +20.7% to McCain +2.3%
North Carolina, 15 EV, from Bush 12.4% to McCain + 4.2%
Missouri, 11 EV, from Bush 7.2% to McCain +4.7%
I think NC and MO are a stretch, but some of the shifts in the above states are staggering. An 18% swing in Indiana? More than 7% in VA? These are national dividends from the Dean 50-state strategy and the collapse of the Bush years, and the payoff will be both in the Presidential race as well as downticket, where Democrats are challenging in states and districts where they have not done so for years. It is this downticket success, as well as the shifts by states like Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Indiana that give 2008 a chance to be a realigning election like 1932 or 1860.
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